My take on David Einhorn's Mets Acquisition

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I'll be brief today. To Fred and Jeff Wilpon, be careful what you wish for.

By any realistic review, new Mets' presumptive 40% stakeholder David Einhorn is a success as a Hedge Fund Manager with Greenlight Capital, in taking $660,000 at the World Series of Poker, and as a philanthropist good-deed doer. Through any analysis, he is a very smart man.

So to summarize this deal, the Wilpons are accepting $200 Million of his money -- which will not go into the team -- for about a 40% "non-controlling" interest, one that does not include any part of SNY, but more importantly, but neither does it include any of the highly leveraged debt that they have incurred.

Mr. Einhorn's specialty is assessing risk, and he clearly positioning himself to own the entire team in the likely event that L'Affaire Madoff ends with a resolution somewhere between the Wilpons' offer of $150 Million to settle, Irving Picard's request for $1 Billion, and the $700 Million determined by former New York Governor Mario Cuomo's independent review. Splitting the difference will clearly cost them the team.

I expect Mr. Einhorn to be the last man standing, and Fred to return to his true calling as a motivational speaker. And it's all good for fans of the Metropolitans.

You Know You're A Met Fan If...

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You Know You're A Met Fan If You...

1. Still blame Armando Benitez for their loss in the 2000 World Series in 5 Games
2. Have now had a revelation that Jose Reyes is not worth Carl Crawford money
3. Are convinced that Mike Piazza's new trim look is a result of Proactiv and Jenny Craig
4. Feel like a "schmuck" for rooting for Carlos Beltran
5. Own a pair of K-Rod shades
6. Get mad when a Met wants a 2nd opinion after being given a clean bill of health from the team's medical staff
7. Believe that Todd Hundley set the catchers' HR record on MetRx
8. Rooted for the Phillies (or "nobody") in the 2009 World Series
9. Are still certain that Rey Ordonez is better than Derek Jeter
10. Are ready to sell your David Wright jersey upon the news that he isn't a superstar
11. It seems plausible that Kirk Radomski was ingeniously planted in the Shea Stadium clubhouse to sell PEDs to the Yankees
12. Think there is no way the Wilpons knew what Bernie Madoff was up to
13. Feel the dimensions of Citi Field are just swell
14. Agreed with Tony Bernazard that Mets' concussion victims were soft
15. Are OK with flying Willie Randolph to Southern California to fire him
16. Gave Keith Hernandez a standing ovation after the drug hearings

And finally...

   17.   Think Fred Wilpon is making a lot of sense.

Do you think this sounds ridiculous? Turn on the FAN today.

That Jimmy Dugan really knows his Baseball...Memo to Joe Girardi's binder: sacrifice bunts are a low percentage move

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The Yankees today survived the Subway Series with the Mets today with an 8-run 7th inning. And I say survived because of Manager Joe Girardi's obsession with sacrifice bunting.

I posted recently regarding the Yankees "relying" on "too many" HRs, and the fact that there is nothing to the argument of "trying" to hit singles. The statistical run expectancy of having a man on 1st and no outs is .80, a man on 2nd and 1 out .65. That's less of a chance, no?

Today's move with the score tied at 3-3, runners on 1st and 2nd in the 7th inning was Curtis Granderson "successfully" sacrificing the runners to 2nd and 3rd. Thus with one move, Girardi effectively took the bats out of the hands of his 2 hottest hitters, Granderson and Mark Texeira, whom Terry Collins wisely walked intentionally.

Curtis Granderson is 2nd in the Majors in HRs, and hit one today. I don't know what alternative universe Girardi inhabits, but Granderson is exactly the guy you want up in that situation. A-Rod did drive in the go ahead run with his "swinging bunt" single, but a more conventional grounder would have likely ended the threat with a DP.

Aside from Robinson Cano's single to RF, all of the other hits were bloops and dribblers. It's possible that the Yankees "reliance" on HRs has been just bad luck on balls in play, bad hitting, or a combination of both.

This is not the last dead ball year of 1968. Someone please inform Joe Girardi's binder, as it's clearly managing the team on its own.

Skynet is operational in The Bronx.

Crappe Diem: The New York Yankees Dead Bats Society

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There has been a great deal of talk lately about how the Yankees hit "too many homers", and thus don't "know how" to score runs any other way. It's a ridiculous argument, one I would like to take on now.

The Yankees don't hit a lot of homers because they're specifically trying to. They happen to have a lot of hitters with power, and a park conducive to HRs. When they get a ball in the air, it happens to carry over the fence with great frequency.

A Major League hitter is typically just trying to get a pitch they like, and hit it hard. Sometimes they make it through the infield for singles, sometimes they go down the line or in the gap for a double or triple, other times they clear the fence for a Home Run, and in about 65%-75% of the cases, they end up in someone's glove. Same effort, varying results.

However, last Wednesday's game crystallized what I think the Yankees problem is: their obsession with opponents' pitch counts.

Royals' starter Vin Mazzaro threw 94 pitches in 4 innings as the Yankees "patiently" took pitches. Despite 6 hits and 4 walks in this effort run up the pitch count, they managed to score only 2 runs, and lost in extras 4-3 when Joe Girardi inexplicably allowed Buddy Carlyle and Luis Ayala to finish the game.

Earth to Yankees: Young Mr. Mazzaro is not Pedro Martinez circa 1997. You do not want him out of the game! You need to knock him out by knocking him out!!!

The Yankee lineup does not look old to me. They look confused, unmotivated, non-competitive, and worst of all, boring.

And here is a potential solution: if Francisco Cervelli is going to exhibit the defense he has displayed as back-up, he is useless, as he provides negligible offense. Jesus Montero can catch once every 5 days and DH the rest. This team needs a shot in the arm.

Someone told me it's all happening at the Zoo: your 2011 New York Yankees

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After about 15 years in hibernation, the drama of "The Bronx Zoo" has returned. On the heels of my post last week regarding the travails of Derek Jeter, another ageding member of the "Core Four" has staked their claim.

Jorge Posada, current DH and former catcher, sporting a batting average of .160, and by all appearances and contradictory claims feels "disrespected" over finding that he was the 9th place hitter for Saturday's game versus Boston. It has now been chalked up to being a "bad day", but there is clearly something not right with him.

Baseball is a very tough game, and it will tell you when you are good, when you are bad, and when you are finished. In Wednesday's game against Kansas City, the Royals chose to walk Nick Swisher, himself not having a good year, to load the bases and pitch to Posada with 2 out.

Michael Kay noted the "dis", and proclaimed that this would gall the "proud veteran". What was that about pride again? Posada got to a full count, and then flailed feebly at an off speed pitch in the dirt. The move made by KC Manager Ned Yost was correct, and a bit sad as well, devestating in its reality.

In my Jeter post, I referred to the joyless, dour nature of the Yankee Clubhouse. Jorge Posada is one of the ringmasters in that regard. And I sense that tension is coming back.

Picture life at this stage for Jorge Posada. His extremely productive Major League career is winding down, and its course is being dictated by nemesis Joe Girardi, who did not "mentor" him, but as a "tools" catcher still in is his prime, blocked him from having a regular job in the Majors. The 2 year delay probably will be the difference in his not making the Hall of Fame.

He does not have a hit yet from the right side of the plate, and seems to be indicating that he is having issues with the transition from catcher to DH. Message to Jorge: you are in the last year of a very generous contract, and your offense no longer justifies your defense, so learn to DH, or be prepared for what's next. That would be retirement.

The last point I want to make is that I'm not thrilled about the "kumbaya" support he has received for this behavior. The makeshift starting rotation the Yankees have assembled has performed fairly well, yet they aren't scoring runs, supposedly their strong suit. I will address this in detail in my next post.

Some Ballpark Stuff (Did Don LaGreca really say that?)

I mentioned in an earlier post that I put the 2 New York parks in about a C+ range, right around the mean of where I see MLB parks.

This week, ESPN 1050's Don LaGreca made the second ridiculous comment I've heard from him on Citi Field. Quite frankly, he is the 180 degree opposite of what I consider the ideal fan of a team to be, as he is one who thinks in the short term rather than to the overall good.

What I mean is that the long season sport is never to be viewed from the Small Sample prism, and not too much credence can be given to a couple of games. In this manner, he has made himself the mouthpiece for the Wilpon family, much like an old New York sportswriter had done with prior Mets management.

Those of you who are in my age group will remember the influential former Daily News columnist Dick Young, who represented the old world of sports, one that when we grew up we learned was mostly fiction.

To me, he has two lasting legacies, both of which were extremely negative for New York sports fans. First, as the beat writer for the Brooklyn Dodgers in the 1950's, he completely misread Walter O'Malley's intention to leave for LA, writing repeatedly that there was no chance they would go. He revised this opinion at the very threshold of their departure to the West Coast. His special gift was continuously chastising O'Malley sole villain, something that I believed until learning better 20 years ago. I view this as a face-saving exercise on his part for playing the fool.

However, his most egregious action was his participation in the trade of Tom Seaver from the Mets in 1977, the "original sin" of the franchise. At the dawn of the Free Agent era, Seaver was working on a low ball contract, and wanted to be paid more in line with his status as the best pitcher in baseball. He was also very vocal in his unhappineess that the Mets did not make a play for any Free Agents in the Class of 1976.

M. Donald Grant was Chairman of the Mets, and didn't want to hear it. The impending higher salaries of the time were an anathema to him, and he wouldn't budge. Fine so far. But that wasn't enough.

He chose to plant a story badmouthing Seaver's wife, which Young gleefully printed. Seaver was furious, ended all discussions, and demanded the trade. The "sin" as such, beyond trading the face of the Mets, was the Grant legacy, one which is in the Met fans' DNA to this day: we don't want to be like the Yankees; we play the "kids"; we try to be a small market team. That's how you got the Wilpons.

Back to LaGreca. In a discussion about the dimensions of Citi Field last season, and specifically David Wright's missing power, he asked, "what's wrong with a park that plays better for triples?" I don't know Don, but maybe nobody will want to sacrifice their stats, and thus their livelihood, to play here for a franchise with a losing pedigree? Or was that by design by cheap owners with financial problems?

But it was this whopper this week that made me post. When comparing Yankee Stadium to Citi Field, he said something like "...well Citi Field is better than Yankee Stadium because it's not a shrine to the Yankees. At least Citi Field is original."

Original? Don, were you drugged and blindfolded each time you entered Citi Field? Did you somehow miss the fact that it's a deliberate facsimile of Ebbets Field? And if you were familiar with HOK parks built in the last 20 years, you would know that it shares design elements with at least 5 other parks built in this era. It's every bit as original as the next Applebees grand opening.

Your anti-Yankee slip is showing again. Please stop being Fred Wilpon's best friend, it's very unbecoming.

No way (Sandy Alderson will sign) Jose

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I wrote a previous blog regarding what the New York Mets would need to do to turn the corner, one where my central thesis was that Met fans should root for anything that separates the Wilpon family from the team. The secondary point was that specific Mets needed to get off to a great start in order to facilitate trades of veterans that will allow new GM Sandy Alderson to initiate the rebuilding program that the franchise so desperately needs to be successful again.

There were two pieces of news this week on this front, the first of which doesn't appear to be good. Hedge Fund impresario Steve Cohen appears to be the frontrunner to meet Fred Wilpon's wish to have someone in to be his enabler minority owner. With all the talk about the new parks in New York City, empty seats and high ticket prices  -- curiously only directed at the Yankees -- I'm eager to see what kind of seats $200 Million buys at Citi Field, since that's all Fred and Jeff appear to be offering.

I think Mr. Cohen could get a much better deal by going directly through the Mets Season Ticket Office. Just saying.

The second piece of news was a list published by John Heyman of 6 teams that he considered a fit for shortstop Jose Reyes, a free agent at the end of the season. As probably the 2nd most popular Met after David Wright, this is a point of consternation for Met fans, who still view him through the lens of 2006.

Reyes seems to have gotten over his injuries, and is off to the kind of start that would facilitate a trade. Met fans see a future built around their exciting 28 year old shortstop, but here's an inescapable fact: Jose Reyes is not Sandy Alderson's kind of player. He is going to trade him, and I'm 99 44/100% sure of this.

Sandy Alderson is not continuing Omar Minaya's program. Given the Mets' financial condition, he is going to look for low payroll, high on-base percentage, Moneyball type players, of which Jose Reyes is not one. His current 2011 OBP of .378 represents the high-water mark of his career, with a career rate of .331. Even his three year peak was in the .350's.

I know you all love the stolen bases and the panache, but this isn't the NBA. Baseball is the ultimate Large Sample Size sport, 162 games played mostly in the heat of summer at a sometimes plodding pace. Think of the tortoise beating the hare. In today's game, a lead-off hitter cannot get on base at a 33% rate.

While long and boring at times, there is a direct correlation between those 4 hour games that the Yankees and Red Sox are playing, and winning. Sandy Alderson knows this, and that is the course he intends to pursue. He does not have the luxury or inclination to pay the $16 Million per season that Jose Reyes is going to make next year.

A 4 month "rental" of Jose Reyes, who I think will be a Red or a Giant, will garner 1 premium and probably 2 second-tier prospects for the Mets, a deal Sandy Alderson will gladly and correctly accept.

The Derek Jeter Conundrum: Marsellus Wallace was right

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Those of you who follow my Blog and my TV show know that I am a huge fan of the career and exploits of Derek Jeter. But I've always been a realist, and I have never viewed his current 3-year contract (with player option for a 4th) as anything but a golden parachute for time served. Let's face it, more than any other team in professional sports, the New York Yankees operate like a Fortune 500 corporation.

Seriously, the talk of "how the fans would react" was completely lost on me, and of no consequence. I never bought into the "well if they gave A-Rod..." argument. If Derek Jeter chose to walk for $10 million less per annum just to spite the Yankees, savvy Yankee fans would have thought him a fool. The Yankees treated him like a top salesman at the end of his run, and clearly saw great value in his getting his 3,000th hit in Pinstripes.

This post, however, is about his current inability to get around on mediocre fastballs, as well as his current place atop the Yankee batting order, and any "controversy" that might occur should Joe Girardi attempt to drop him down to 8th. This post is about Derek Jeter, captain and "team" player.

My "partner-in-crime" Eddie Mayrose will probably find this amusing, but these are thoughts I've always had, as I've never gotten that attached to a player since Thurman Munson's passing.

Columnist Ian O'Connor is about to release a book about the tiff between A-Rod and Derek, beginning with the Sport Magazine article in 2001 when Alex stated the obvious about the differences in their power numbers. In the analysis of certain events that have happened since, it has been my observation (one of which I witnessed 1st hand and close-up, more below) that Derek Jeter is the one that has not been acting like a grown-up.

I was in the sacred "Giuliani" seats at the old Stadium for that June 2006 game against the Orioles when Alex and Derek went for the same pop-up. Rodriguez got there first, and Jeter bumped into him from behind, causing him to drop the ball and allow a run to score. My customer and I saw the expression of hurt on A-Rod's face, as well the look of scorn on Jeter's face. My customer turned to me, and said succinctly "A-Rod just hit bottom". Jeter then proceeded to throw Alex under the bus with the Press after the game.

The title of this post comes from the scene in Pulp Fiction when the boxer Butch (Bruce Willis) and Marsellus Wallace (Ving Rhames) are going over the terms of the fix of a boxing match. Wallace tells Butch that, "Night of the fight, you might feel a slight sting. That's pride effin' with you. Eff pride! Pride only hurts, it never helps."

So exactly when does Derek Jeter, "team player" go to Joe Girardi, and say "Skip, I'm hurting the team, take me out of the top of the order?" Is it "pride"?

Was it when he said in 2004 "A-Rod's a better shortstop, I''ll play 3rd"? Didn't happen.

How about when the Selena Roberts PED story came out: "I support Alex". I guess I missed that one too.

It's a historical fact that when C.C. Sabathia was being courted by the Yankees, he was paid extra by Brian Cashman because of his fear of the Yankees dysfunctional clubhouse, and the lefty's known ability as a leader. Stop me if you've heard the one about C.C. threatening to make Francisco Cervelli's half 2009 WS share a full share out of his own pocket.

It's ironic that Derek Jeter is the one in the Yankee promos that gives the quote attributed to Joe DiMaggio that "someone may be seeing me play for the first time". Joe D retired when the Dodgers 1951 scouting report about his shortcomings became public after that World Series against the NY Giants.

Now is the time for true leadership. 50 hits to 3,000 is not that many. Derek can make that from 8th spot. Show me.