No way (Sandy Alderson will sign) Jose

HIGH AND TIGHT

I wrote a previous blog regarding what the New York Mets would need to do to turn the corner, one where my central thesis was that Met fans should root for anything that separates the Wilpon family from the team. The secondary point was that specific Mets needed to get off to a great start in order to facilitate trades of veterans that will allow new GM Sandy Alderson to initiate the rebuilding program that the franchise so desperately needs to be successful again.

There were two pieces of news this week on this front, the first of which doesn't appear to be good. Hedge Fund impresario Steve Cohen appears to be the frontrunner to meet Fred Wilpon's wish to have someone in to be his enabler minority owner. With all the talk about the new parks in New York City, empty seats and high ticket prices  -- curiously only directed at the Yankees -- I'm eager to see what kind of seats $200 Million buys at Citi Field, since that's all Fred and Jeff appear to be offering.

I think Mr. Cohen could get a much better deal by going directly through the Mets Season Ticket Office. Just saying.

The second piece of news was a list published by John Heyman of 6 teams that he considered a fit for shortstop Jose Reyes, a free agent at the end of the season. As probably the 2nd most popular Met after David Wright, this is a point of consternation for Met fans, who still view him through the lens of 2006.

Reyes seems to have gotten over his injuries, and is off to the kind of start that would facilitate a trade. Met fans see a future built around their exciting 28 year old shortstop, but here's an inescapable fact: Jose Reyes is not Sandy Alderson's kind of player. He is going to trade him, and I'm 99 44/100% sure of this.

Sandy Alderson is not continuing Omar Minaya's program. Given the Mets' financial condition, he is going to look for low payroll, high on-base percentage, Moneyball type players, of which Jose Reyes is not one. His current 2011 OBP of .378 represents the high-water mark of his career, with a career rate of .331. Even his three year peak was in the .350's.

I know you all love the stolen bases and the panache, but this isn't the NBA. Baseball is the ultimate Large Sample Size sport, 162 games played mostly in the heat of summer at a sometimes plodding pace. Think of the tortoise beating the hare. In today's game, a lead-off hitter cannot get on base at a 33% rate.

While long and boring at times, there is a direct correlation between those 4 hour games that the Yankees and Red Sox are playing, and winning. Sandy Alderson knows this, and that is the course he intends to pursue. He does not have the luxury or inclination to pay the $16 Million per season that Jose Reyes is going to make next year.

A 4 month "rental" of Jose Reyes, who I think will be a Red or a Giant, will garner 1 premium and probably 2 second-tier prospects for the Mets, a deal Sandy Alderson will gladly and correctly accept.