HIGH AND TIGHT
In yesterday's post, I went over the math involved in the Mets' ability or inability to keep Jose Reyes next year and beyond due to their forced, and preferred, financial constraints. I also showed how the payroll for 2012 set up, how there are built-in raises to currently non-productive, immovable players, and how ultimately, the contracts of both Reyes and Francisco Rodriguez counterbalance one another.
What comes out in the wash is that K-Rod's $17 Million player option, which vests at 55 "finishes" this year, is really the deciding factor in whether then can sign their shortstop to a long-term deal.
The title above refers to the scene at the end of The Godfather, when Michael Corleone, now Don, proposes to Moe Green that the Corleone family buy out his interest in a Las Vegas casino. Moe refuses -- adamantly -- and gets a bullet through his eye for his trouble.
The Mets problem with that vesting option is that:
a). At his current pace, K-Rod will unquestionably make the 55 appearances
b). The option tends to close out contenders who while they need a closer -- his highest trade-back value -- do not want to pay one $17mm next season
AND
c). There wasn't a large market for a half season set-up man for about $5mm
That is, until last Thursday.
When Joba Chamberlain was shut down by the Yankees to get Tommy John surgery, they manned the lifeboats, looking to stay afloat while they look for a short-term solution. With Mariano Rivera to close, K-Rod's option won't vest.
The cast of characters available leaves no doubt that the Yankees will make some move, as they did successfully last season with Kerry Wood, who may again be available as the Cubs take on water.
While it will not be viewed that way by Met fans, this is a tremendous opportunity for the Mets, in fact Joba's injury is their best-case scenario. But not because of what is coming back. This is why I wrote yesterday that you will need to be strong.
Last month, I re-capped how the 1977 trade of Tom Seaver to the Reds came about, and how Met fans learned all of the wrong lessons, mainly how to be repulsed by player salaries despite being fans of a fairly successful team in the world's largest media market. It is mostly the result, however, by not wanting to be like the Yankees.
But really, when the team was its most successful from about 1984 through 1992, weren't they exactly like the Yankees? Drunken brawls? Drug issues? Mentions on Page 6 of The Post? And what about the rape and pillage of the Twins in the Frank Viola trade and in acquiring Bret Saberhagen from the Royals? Please spare me.
Do not, I repeat, do not, allow your judgement to be clouded by your disdain for the Yankees. The future of your shortstop -- and your Franchise --- depends on it.
Michael Corleone- "Think about a price."
For starters, you are not getting Jesus Montero. The Yankees have other options for a reliever. Nor the "Killer B's" -- Betances, Banuelos or Brackman. Catcher Austin Romine may be a possibility, and starter Ivan Nova could be as well, given that facing NL line-ups with the pitcher batting could easily get his average start to 7 innings as the batting order turns less frequently.
The Yankees, flush with other young pitching prospects, would probably give the Mets a starter and a reliever in exchange for picking up the remainder of the contract.
And what about now? I have no doubt that Pedro Beato can close. None whatsoever. Nova, if traded, could slot into the rotation immediately.
Sleep on it, won't you?
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