Do You Know The Way To Sign Jose?

HIGH AND TIGHT

This is a two-part blog, the rest of which I will add tomorrow.

It is an alternative take on what I have predicted. The title occurred to me after my original post, and I was sure I couldn't use it, since I was on record predicting that the Mets will not sign Jose Reyes after 2011.

Viewing myself as Springsteen throwing off his extra songs to Patti Smith and Southside Johnny, I offered the title to my "Down In Front!" co-host and Reyes Fan Club President, Eddie Mayrose. He told me that the title was "too good" -- which was exactly Southside's response to Bruce when given "The Fever" -- and challenged me to use it myself. And away we go...

To wit, given Fred Wilpon's ahem, "feel" for things -- i.e. an adverse cash-flow situation -- and Sandy Alderson's predilection for lower-salaried players with historically high on-base percentages, my initial read was that the New York Mets will likely trade shortstop Jose Reyes for a package of prospects rather than sign him to a long term contract at $16 million per, "Carl Crawford" money.

I probably wasn't clear on this, but Met fans have been basically blind to the factors that Mr. Alderson will take into account: Reyes' injury history; the fact that while his current OBP is in the desired range, it is an outlier in the extreme within the context of his entire career; speed, as such, is generally the first "tool" to fade with age; and finally, that he in his "contract" year, no less.

And then there's this: the Mets' stated intention to reduce their 2012 payroll from its current $122 million to about $95 million, middle of the pack for the National League. So New York is now mid-market now for the NL? Right. Way to go, Fred and Jeff.

My starting figure for 2012 stays flat at $122 million, with the following assumptions:

1. Carlos Beltran's $20mm is dropped, and his replacement costs $10mm ($10mm reduction)
2. Jose Reyes get his raise from $11mm to $16mm ($5mm increase)
3. The option of Francisco Rodriguez vests, and his salary goes from $12mm to $17mm ($5mm increase)

For the record, I left out the two problem contracts they are stuck with: Johan Santana at $24mm and Jason Bay at $18mm. Keep in mind, Santana is getting a raise.

I think you see where this is going. Jose Reyes' fate with the Mets is directly tied to what happens with K-Rod. Finding a home for him will be the subject of tomorrow's blog.

That destination is flawlessly and completely logical. I hope you Met fans have strong stomachs. It is in The Bronx.